The El Gordo de Navidad draw is not only known for the large number of prizes available, but also for offering some of the best odds of winning compared to other lottery games around the world.
Famous lotteries like EuroMillions don’t distribute fixed amounts of total prizes because the number of winners are based on the number of correct entries. The odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 139,838,160, with twelve other ways to win prizes that are not the jackpot. La Primitiva is another well-known game with seven prize tiers, and the prize levels there are also based on the number of winners for each tier rather than a set amount.
The difference with El Gordo is that it operates as a raffle, distributing a specific number of prizes that all have a set value before the draw starts. Because of this, El Gordo offers a near 1 in 100,000 chance of winning the jackpot.
It is important to remember the role that the series play in El Gordo, and there were 185 in 2023. This means that 185 people could have the same raffle numbers, but all 185 would win the jackpot of €4 million if that raffle code was chosen. The same goes for all the other prize tiers as well.
The odds of winning prizes in each category of a series are shown below:
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| Prize Level | Odds of Winning |
|---|---|
| El Gordo 1st prize | 1 in 100,000 |
| 2nd prize | 1 in 100,000 |
| 3rd prize | 1 in 100,000 |
| 4th prize | 1 in 50,000 |
| 5th prize | 1 in 12,500 |
| The number before and the number after El Gordo 1st prize | 1 in 50,000 |
| The number before and the number after 2nd prize | 1 in 50,000 |
| The number before and the number after 3rd prize | 1 in 50,000 |
| Same first three digits as El Gordo 1st prize | 1 in 1,010 |
| Same first three digits as 2nd prize | 1 in 1,010 |
| Same first three digits as 3rd prize | 1 in 1,010 |
| Same first three digits as 4th prize | 1 in 505 |
| Same last two digits as El Gordo | 1 in 100 |
| Same last two digits as 2nd prize | 1 in 100 |
| Same last two digits as 3rd prize | 1 in 100 |
| Five correct numbers | 1 in 56 |
| Same last digit as El Gordo | 1 in 10 |